News and announcements

< go back

Press Release January 2020
22/01/2020

January to November 2019 METALS BALANCES

Primary aluminium market in surplus in January to November 2019

The calculated market balance for primary aluminium for January to November 2019 was a surplus of 445 kt which follows a surplus of 116 kt recorded for the whole of 2018. Demand for primary aluminium for January to November 2019 was 57.22 million tonnes, 707 kt less than in the same eleven months of 2018. Production in January to November 2019 fell by 210kt compared with the same period in 2018. Producer stock data is no longer published and total reported stocks fell slightly during November and closed at the end of the month 408 kt below the December 2018 level. Total LME stocks rose during November, mostly in Asian warehouses, Total stocks at the end of November 2019 were 2021 kt which compares with 2429 kt at the end of 2018. Total stocks held in the four exchanges in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo were 1540 kt at the end of November 2019 which were 412 kt lower than the December 2018 total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for large unreported stock changes especially those held in Asia.

Overall, global production fell in January to November 2019 by 0.4 per cent compared with the first eleven months of 2018. Chinese output was estimated at 32129 kt and this currently accounts for about 56 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 0.1 per cent higher than in January to November 2018. Chinese net exports of unwrought aluminium were 321 kt during January to November 2019 which compares with 341 kt in the comparable period in 2018. January to November 2019 Chinese net exports of aluminium semi manufactures were 4394 kt which compares with 4252 kt for the first eleven months of 2018.

Production in the EU28 was 0.6 per cent higher than the previous year and NAFTA output rose by 4.7 per cent. EU28 demand was 372 kt lower than the comparable 2018 total. Global demand fell by 1.2 per cent during January to November 2019 compared with the levels recorded one year previously.

In November 2019, primary aluminium production was 5303 kt and consumption was 5131.1 kt.

Copper market deficit in January to November 2019

The copper market recorded a deficit of 269 kt in January to November 2019 which follows a deficit of 275 kt in the whole of 2018. Reported stocks rose during November to close 6.2 kt higher than at the end of December 2018. This November increase includes net deliveries of 46.5kt out of the LME warehouses and net deliveries of 22.8 kt out of Shanghai warehouses. Comex stocks dropped by 64.1 kt over the first eleven months of the year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile.

World mine production in January to November 2019 was 18.8 million tonnes which was 1.1 per cent higher than in the same period in 2018. Global refined production for January to November 2019 was 21.45 million tonnes down 0.6 per cent compared with the previous year with significant decreases recorded in India (down 123kt) and in Chile (down 202 kt).

Global consumption for January to November 2019 was 21.72 million tonnes compared with 21.87 million tonnes for the same months of 2018. Chinese apparent demand for the period January to November 2019 was 11512 kt which was 1.8 per cent higher than the first eleven months of 2018. EU28 production fell by 5.3 per cent and demand was 2858 kt, 7.3 per cent below the January to November 2018 total.

In November 2019, refined copper production was 2073.6 kt and consumption was 2145.9 kt.

Lead market records deficit in January to November 2019

The lead market recorded a deficit of 344kt in January to November 2019 which follows a deficit of 243 kt recorded in the whole of 2018. Total stocks at the end of November were 16 kt lower than at the end of 2018. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

World refined production during January to November 2019 from both primary and secondary sources was 11198 kt which was 5.8 per cent higher than in the comparable months of 2018. Chinese apparent demand was estimated at 5313 kt which was 665 kt higher than the comparable period in 2018 and represented about 46 per cent of the global total. For the USA, apparent demand has increased fractionally 8 kt for January to November 2019 compared to the same months of 2018.

In November 2019, refined lead production was 1079.7 kt and consumption was 1099.4 kt.


Zinc market records deficit in January to November 2019

The zinc market was in deficit by 174.1kt during January to November 2019 which compares with a surplus of 109 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Reported stocks decreased by 48 kt during January to November with a net increase in Shanghai of 25.7 kt over the period. LME stocks rose in November but closed 69.8 kt below the December 2018 level. LME stocks represent 12 per cent of the global total with the bulk of the metal held in Taiwan and Dutch warehouses.

Global refined production rose by 3.1 per cent and consumption was 5.7 per cent higher than the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese apparent demand was, at 469 kt, 6.2 per cent above the equivalent total for January to November 2018.

World demand was 699 kt higher than for January to November 2018. Chinese apparent demand was 6213 kt which is 48 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

In November 2019, slab zinc production was 1245.3 kt and consumption 1251.6 kt.

Nickel market records deficit in January to November 2019

The nickel market was in deficit during January to November 2019 with apparent demand exceeding production by 38.8 kt. In the whole of 2018, the calculated deficit was 98.7 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of November 2019 were 137 kt lower than at the end of the previous year. Refined production in January to November 2019 totalled 2197.1 kt and demand was 2235.9 kt.

Mine production during January to November was 2332.2 kt, 141 kt above the comparable 2018 total. Chinese smelter/refinery output increased by 108 kt compared with 2018 and apparent demand was 1197.5 kt, 190 kt higher than in the previous year.

World apparent demand was 69 kt higher than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes

In November 2019, nickel smelter/refinery production was 221.3 kt and consumption was 218.8 kt.


Tin market records surplus in January to November 2019

The tin market recorded a surplus of 0.9 kt during January to November 2019 and there were no DLA deliveries during the period. Chinese demand is calculated on an apparent basis using reported stocks on the Shanghai exchange. It is likely that other stocks at producers and consumers may have increased which would imply that the demand figure may be overstated. WBMS has no information on any other stock changes. Total reported stocks were 6.1 kt higher than at the end of 2018 including an unexplained increase in Indonesian stocks of 6.0 kt.

Global reported production of refined metal was up by 4 kt, compared with the January to November 2018 total. Production in Asia was 17.8 kt lower than the January to November 2018 total. Apparent demand in China was 4.9 per cent higher than the equivalent period of the previous year.

Global tin demand during January to November 2019 was 339.8 kt which was 2 per cent below the comparable period of 2018. Japanese consumption was 23.2 kt which was 10.3 per cent below the comparable total for January to November 2018.

In November 2019, refined production was 28.6 kt and consumption was 27.1 kt


Dated 22nd January 2020


- ENDS-






The above data are taken from World Metal Statistics January 2020 published today.

Editors requiring more detailed information should contact Sue Eales by email at suee@world-bureau.co.uk or by telephone +44 (0) 1920 461274




Disclaimer

Whilst every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and validity of the information contained in this release WBMS and its Board of Directors can accept no responsibility for any losses incurred as a direct result of any actions based on conclusions drawn from the data.

Terms of Use

All data herein may be copied freely, duplicated and further distributed provided that WBMS is cited as the source.



About World Bureau of Metal Statistics:

The World Bureau of Metal Statistics is the data resource of first resort for anyone involved with the global metals industry. By outsourcing their research to WBMS, whether via regular publications or surveys tailored to their needs, organisations not only enjoy the benefit of reliable, first class data but also save significantly on cost and time. Through regular publications, available on subscription in print and electronic format, WBMS are able to keep companies and organisations throughout the world up to date on the production, consumption and trade in the major non-ferrous metals.

Launched in 1947, WBMS concentrated initially on the metals trade within the then British Empire. With the contraction of Empire, the organisation switched focus to the world stage and began collecting and collating data from a huge number of global sources. More than half a century later, its massive and regularly updated database forms the basis of printed and electronic publications aimed at the many and varied users of metal statistics. In particular, its monthly World Metal Statistics Bulletin represents the most comprehensive data available anywhere.

World Bureau of Metal Statistics
31 Star Street
Ware
Herts
SG12 7AA
United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0) 1920 461274